Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it's gradually depreciating.
The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic convention, according to Gallup.
That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul, and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.
Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned may have already peaked.
On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.
CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama.
But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.
There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will not be known for days.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.
Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in the presidential race.
For your information, Sarah Palin, McCain's VP pick is a member of the Alaska Independence Party, a political party that wishes to secede from the United States of America.
This party wishes to become a territory or a sovereign nation separate from the USA.
We had a civil war about this before. United we stand, divided we fall.
WE, ALL AMERICANS IRRESPECTIVE OF PARTY AFFILITATION, cannot in good consciousness...vote for this woman as VPOTUS.
· BLATANTLY LIED TO AMERICA ABOUT THE ‘BRIDGE TO NOWHERE’
· MEMBER OF POLITICAL PARTY WITH GOALS TO SECEDE FROM THE UNION
· ATTEMPTS TO STRONG-ARM A YOUNG MAN INTO MARRYING HER DAUGTHER…if that was his plan, he would have done it already. MEN HAVE RIGHTS, TOO!!!!!!!!!! What’s the father’s age??? Alaska has statutory rape laws which the Governor may have to enforce…or, is she and her family ABOVE THE LAW???
· PUTS SELF BEFORE HER CHILDREN & FAMILY by running for VPOTUS. It’s obvious she’ll put herself before your family, too. She should be “at home” with her infant son with Down’s Syndrome and her teenage pregnant daughter; providing the maternal love, care, support and stability necessary for them at this time. Gallivanting across the USA trying to be someone’s VP is not what her children need right now…but, it’s not about them is it Palin? It’s about yourself, McCain, and BIG OIL. It’s definitely not about America.
***This kind of person cannot be allowed to have any power in one of the highest offices in the nation.
What sexism??? Oh, the type that the GOP gutted HILLARY with all those years?? I’m not buying it HIPOCRITES!
Once Palin and McCain give their acceptance speeches, expect the race to turn in their favour. Obama's silly speech, full of big government liberal idiocy, barely got him anything. Palin will demonstrate what a great leader she truly is and how she is a real reformer. McCain will be even more impressive because the expectations have been toned down. Oh, and the fact that Obama is an empty suit with no accomplishments to speak of whatsoever. Funny how that last point is constantly ignored by all his supporters.McCain / Palin 2008!
The reason for the small bump is that the independent voters are still unsure about Barack at this point. In the end he'll lose the general election despite being one of the most popular candidates to the Democrat base. The truth is that the idea of Obama is exciting but the reality of Obama is that he really is not ready for the position. McCain is a more moderate candidate and this will appeal to the undecided voters.
Hey America08 - nice rambling rant. I see you got your copy of "things to say" whenever you have a forum. Who cares what the subject is? Oh by the way, you skipped number 4 on the list-- 4. The stupid anti animal rights slut eats moose burgers - off with her head! Have a nice night. A word of advice, stop staring directly at the sun so you can see those wavy lines of lights. It really messes up your brainwaves. Your aluminum foil cap won't help with them.
Barack Hussein Obama is the son of a Muslim from Nyangoma-Kogel, Kenya and a Communist mother from Kansas. After his father died, his mother married a Radical Muslim from Indonesia. Barack attended a Wahabi school in Jakarta and studied the Koran. (Wahabism is the radical teaching followed by terrorists who are waging Jihad against the Western world).
Obama's political handlers take great care to downplay his Muslim background. They will say that his introduction to islam was temporary.......Don't buy it.
Radical Muslims say that they want to destroy the United Stated from the inside out. What better way than to put one of their own in the White House?
Americans cannot trust the Commander-In-Chief position to a "community organizer" from a corrupt Chicago neighborhood. One who is a buddy of a guy who bombed the Pentagon.
As a hardcore Democrat, this year is the only election year that I will not be voting for a Democratic nominee. I will still vote for a Democratic candidate for the senate. I think I exemplify the danger that Obama will face. I will not vote just because he is a Democrat.
He lied about passing a nuclear legislation bill and how he brought universal health care to Illinois. It turned out that the nuclear bill never passed the senate and Illinois is only now trying to pass an universal health care bill.
The truth is the truth. The Democratic Party nominated a phony. Originally I was going to vote for any Democratic nominee until I learned about the lies of Obama.
Lasting memories are not breaking Obama's way, it seems? McCain doesn't even seem at risk for similar "interpretations" for some reason.
>>> How? How is it most candidates end up having our comedic stock start resembling them more and more as campaign progresses and less often as such becomes "elected mockery"?
How is it Obama is instead, as from lasting memories of his platform platform form, having him having start looking more and more like our comedians, our comedians thought to have been playing him?
Maybe it has to do with other memories of Obama Convention. Maybe it has to do with President Bill Clintons speach? Maybe it has to do with the questions raised by just one line in Clinton's speach? Maybe it has to do with Bill saying "Obama is ready for "this" job"" and looking his ykk way? The tense of such oration still seems inappropriate for Bill unless he still thinks himself as in the drivers seat even during the Bush presidency? Comedians may have played with this already without my observation but what was Bill really implying in Obama is "ready for this job"? I read today that Vice President Cheney has the make up to just leave such power of office and move on as I got to yesterdays papers. Bill? Bouncer?
It's hard to have a bounce when the other side does something so completely unexpected that everyone pays attention trying to figure it out. This may prove to be a brilliant move by John McCain, but I don't think so. Sarah Palin may be someone that many Americans can relate to, but does that qualify her to a 72 year old heartbeat away from the Presidency? As for those who still claim that Barack Obama is "an empty suit" - have you read his books? And anyone who goes through what he has gone through over the last 19 months has been well seasoned, as his speech on Thursday night showed. His relationship with Joe Biden (one of the most respected members of Congress) is further evidence of his readiness to serve as POTUS. Sarah Palin may be a vivatious speaker, but so far I haven't seen anything that would make me feel easy about her assuming the responsibilities of VPOTUS; and her selection makes even more concerned about John McCain's abilities to serve as POTUS. As for the polls, Americans have a lot to digest right now and we may not have a clear idea until after the first debate - assuming, of course, that the Palins continue to believe that with everything else going on in their family that Sarah can take on the job of running for, and potentially serving as, Vice President.Still puzzled in PA
I cannot say some good things didn't happen during the Clinton years and some even because they were specifically the elected first couple, in case you thought otherwise. I do just feel still how much more was maybe possible, how much more was possible if one was willing to affirm some of the old "shining city (city!) on a hill" goals he had inherited. They were not all bad? Poll?
Reply
Quote
Report Abuse
